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中国与海上丝绸之路国家贸易的影响因素分析——兼论“龙腾模型”的可行性

An Analysis of the Influencing Factors of China's Maritime Silk Road——On the Feasibility of the "Dragon Model"
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摘要 非市场经济地位以及由此引发的反倾销、反补贴诉讼已经成为我国对外贸易发展中的最大障碍之一,并且非市场经济地位已成为我国企业应诉国外反倾销调查的核心问题。在以1995-2016年欧盟、印度、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、摩洛哥、新西兰、菲律宾、南非、中国台湾、泰国、越南、日本和中国的贸易额、政府信誉、税负、商业自由化、货币自由化、投资自由化、金融自由他、贸易自由化等8个变量作为自变量,以反倾销数量为因变量所进行的实证研究中发现,进一步放开货币自由化和金融自由化可以降低对中国反倾销的数量。既然非市场经济地位依然从解决问题泛化为政治经济问题,中国需要寻求新的出路。“一带一路”这种以中国为龙头、丝绸之路沿线国家为龙身的“龙腾模式”,必将成为发展中国家突破发达国家约束的重要途径。 The non-market economy status and the ensuing anti-dumping and countervailing litigations have become one of the biggest obstacles in the development of China's foreign trade, and the non-market economy status has been the core issue when Chinese enterprises respond to foreign anti-dumping investigations. An empirical study using eight variables (China's 1995- 2016 trade volume with European Union, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Morocco, New Zealand, the Philippines, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, and Japan, government reputation, tax burden, business liberalization, monetary liberalization, investment liberalization, financial liberalization, and trade liberalization) as the independent variables and using the anti-dumping quantity as the dependent variable found that the deeper the monetary and financial liberalization is, the greater they help to reduce the anti- dumping cases against China. Since the non-market economy status is still a political and economic issue, China needs to find a new way out. The "One Belt and One Road" initiative can be called the "Dragon model" with China being the dragon head and other nations along the Silk Road the dragon body, and this model will help the developing countries to remove the constraints of the developed countries.
作者 张建武 Zhang Jianwu
出处 《人民论坛·学术前沿》 CSSCI 2017年第15期70-77,共8页
基金 国家自然科学基金项目“对外贸易结构调整对劳动力市场的影响机制与政策研究”,项目编号为:71673063 广东外语外贸大学重大培育项目“对外贸易结构凋整对劳动力市场的影响机制与政策研究”的阶段性成果,项目编号为:16ZD03
关键词 非市场经济地位 反倾销 经济自由化 海上丝绸之路 Non-market economy status, Anti-dumping, Economic liberalization, Maritime silk road
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